Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

526
FXUS63 KARX 141755
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1255 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic showers and storms this week. The highest chances
  (80-90 percent) will be Wednesday afternoon and night. The
  chances for any organized convection looks very low.

- Cooler-than-normal temperatures expected through the week with
  high temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to mid-70s, and low
  temperatures ranging from the mid-40s to mid-50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

This Afternoon through Monday morning

Through Monday morning, high pressure will provide dry weather for
the Driftless area. With diurnal mixing this afternoon, it will
remain breezy with northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to
35 mph. As heating gradually wanes this evening, the winds will
gradually become west and wind speeds will decline to 10 mph or less.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid-40s to lower 50s.

Monday Afternoon through Tuesday

A shortwave trough will move through the Driftless area on Monday
night and Tuesday morning. 0-1 km mixed-layer CAPES will climb up to
300 J/kg ahead of this wave on Monday afternoon. This will provide
enough instability for scattered showers and storms. With weak 0-3
km (up to 25 knots) and 0-6 km shear (up to 10 knots), not
anticipating any organized severe storms. High temperatures will be
in the lower to mid-70s on Monday. Low temperatures will be in the
lower and mid-50s. High temperatures on Tuesday be around 70 degrees.

Tuesday night into Wednesday night

A much stronger shortwave trough will move through the region on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The Driftless area will be in the
left-exit region of a 120-knot 250 mb jet. This will greatly enhance
the lift across the region on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
As a result, it is not too surprising that the 0-3 km and 0-6
km shear is quite strong across the region. Fortunately, the
warm sector will stay well to our south across Missouri and
southern Iowa. 0-1 km mixed- layer CAPES stay mainly less than
250 J/kg in the GEFS and less than 400 j/kg in the EPS. As a
result, the better chances for organized convection look to
remain well to our south.

It continues to look like the deeper warm cloud layer depths and
greater precipitable water values will remain across northern
Missouri, southern Iowa, and northern Illinois. As a result, not
concerned about heavy rain too.

Thursday through Saturday

The northern stream jet will remain very active with several
embedded shortwave troughs. This will keep periodic showers and
storms in the forecast. There continues to be plenty of uncertainty
on whether the instability and shear will be ever co-located.
As a result, it is uncertain whether there will be any organized
severe weather. With the northern stream jet remaining to our
south and west, temperatures will be remain below normal in the
70s for high temperatures and range from the mid-40s to mid-50s
for low temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period with
northwesterly winds of 10-15G20-25kts this afternoon decreasing
to 5-10kts this evening and backing to the west through Monday
midday. The next chance of rainfall that could impact aviation
concerns comes Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Skow