Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

119
FXUS63 KARX 070400
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1000 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible over the next few hours,
  mainly along and south of US Highway 18 in northeast Iowa and
  southwest Wisconsin. The primary concern is damaging winds but
  quarter size hail and a tornado cannot be totally ruled out.
  In addition, with frozen ground and precipitable water values
  near 1 inch, rain will result rises on area rivers and
  streams.

- Potential (25-50%) for freezing drizzle Saturday morning along
  and northwest of a Mason City IA to Rochester to Medford arc.

- Warmer temperatures return for Sunday and Monday with
  daytime highs from the 50s into low 60s.

- Precipitation potential (30-45%)returns Tuesday night into
  Wednesday night. Some snow may occur with this precip, but
  impactful amounts appear doubtful (10% chance for 3"+).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 959 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Severe storm potential in the immediate term

Widespread cloudiness and the second round of rain lingering through
early afternoon largely prevented insolation and surface
destabilization today. Observations and guidance trend has
accordingly shifted toward less instability available for
thunderstorms - 07.00z RAOB at DVN has only 200 J/kg of MUCAPE and
07.01z HRRR depicts 250-500 J/kg in our CWA. Thus, while deep shear
remains impressive - effective shear values of 40-60 knots per SPC
mesoanalysis - thinking the severe thunderstorm risk in our area is
low with risk focusing on damaging wind given winds off the surface
increasing above 50 knots as the LLJ ramps up and some up to quarter
size hail given cold temps aloft. However, given those impressive
shear values, will need to remain vigilant, particularly if a
surface based storm manages to develop, as this would lead to a
tornado risk. Risk for all severe modes is highest along and south
of US Highway 18 in NE IA/SW WI while areas farther north mainly
have a risk for a stray severe hailstone given the even more stable
surface layer there.

Freezing rain/drizzle possible Saturday morning

Large positively upper trough is seen over the northern and central
Plains on 03z WV satellite with a strong southwesterly upper jet
over eastern NE toward western Lake Superior. At the surface,
associated cold front is starting to push through our western zones
with northwesterly winds seen at Dodge Center and Austin. With an
axis of robust 850/925mb frontogenesis just behind the surface front
and ascent via ageostrophic response to the right entrance region of
the upper jet, some convection is occurring atop the 850mb warm nose
behind the front over northwest IA and south central MN leading to
freezing rain in Estherville IA where surface temps are 31F. The
good news is that in our CWA, HRRR/RAP suggest surface temps will
not fall as quickly compared to farther west so should this batch of
post-frontal convection reach our area, rain would result. However,
progged profiles at RST do eventually drop below freezing at
Rochester while the warm nose erodes at the same time. With this
near surface layer remaining saturated while the DGZ remains dry
through around 10am, any low level ascent could lead to freezing
drizzle. Have therefore moved the forecast tomorrow morning - where
precip is possible (15-40%) along and northwest of a Mason City IA
to Rochester to Medford ac - toward rain transitioning to freezing
drizzle, retaining a slight chance (15%) for snow in case the DGZ
saturates.

Warm temperatures return Sunday and Monday

After a cool post frontal Saturday with slowly clearing skies,
partly to mostly sunny conditiosn return Sunday and Monday.
Additionally, a pair of northern stream disturbances will lead to
lightly breezy southwesterly surface winds during both days. This
should lead to warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s.
07.01z NBM interquartile ranges are 4-5 degrees F so confidence is
good this warm up will occur.

Next chance for precip Tuesday into Wednesday

Slow moving upper trough looks to slide over the northern Plains and
upper Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday with this feature amplifying
roughly overhead Wednesday into Thursday. Given favored positive
tilt to this trough as it approaches, best forcing for ascent and
moisture look to be displaced to our southeast. However, as the main
body of the upper trough passes overhead, could (30-45%) get some
light precip and, given progged 850/700mb temps below 0C, snow would
be possible as well. Amounts at this do not look to favor impacts,
with only a 10-15% chance to reach 3" of accumulation per 07.01z NBM
and 06.12z LREF, in line with the overall pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Messy aviation forecast ahead with predominant LIFR/IFR
conditions due to a combination of fog, showers, and TS over the
next 12 hours. As showers and TS shift east and fog reduces in
coverage, areas along and northwest of a AUM-RST-MDZ axis may
(30%) see some light snow and FZDZ between 10z and 16z
Saturday. Post-frontal stratocumulus should keep conditions MVFR
into the afternoon Saturday but eventual improvement to VFR
will occur around the end of the period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Ferguson