Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

923
FXUS63 KARX 141124
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
524 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Anomalous warmth is expected through mid-next week. Near
  record to record warm temperatures are possible.

- More active weather is expected by mid-next week bringing
  bouts of precipitation to the region (40-80%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today

Fog has largely struggled to develop overnight owing to dry air
atop the shallow inversion, although some fog development has
occurred in local low lying areas and the Wisconsin River Valley.
Pockets of fog that were able to develop will mix out quickly
this morning.

Through the rest of the day, above normal temperatures are
expected across the region with highs topping out in the low to
mid 50s south of I-94 and mid 40s north of I-94 as southwesterly
winds continue to usher warm air into the region. Outside of
temperatures, partly cloudy skies will exist, of greatest
coverage south of I-90 as an area of low pressure shifts
eastward across the southern half of the contiguous United
States.

Overnight, a 500hPa shortwave trough and associated weak surface low
quickly shift through the Upper Midwest. Model soundings depict a
dry atmosphere below 10kft, so not anticipating any impacts from
these features apart from increasing mid-level cloud cover and
winds shifting to the northwest into Sunday morning.

Anomalous Warmth Through Mid-Next Week

The well advertised warmth continues into the new week as bouts of
southerly wind and associated warm air advection under predominant
upper ridging results in 850hPa temperatures above the 90th
percentile of climatology per the 13.12z NAEFS, a consistent trend
over the past few days. High temperatures climb into the low to mid
50s for those south of I-94 with the potential (10-30% per the
14.01z NBM) to reach 60 degrees over portions of southwest Wisconsin
and northeast Iowa on Monday. Those north of I-94 are expected to
have slightly moderated temperatures owing to the snowpack, but the
abnormal warmth will still be felt across these areas with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Near record to record high
temperatures are possible through the beginning of the new
week, but with more active weather expected by mid-week, warm
low records are favored over record highs Tuesday and
Wednesday.

More Active Weather Mid to Late Next Week

On Tuesday, a strong shortwave trough ejects into the Great Plains,
promoting cyclogenesis throughout the troposphere. The anomalously
deep (near/at the climatological minimum in both the 13.12z NAEFS
and 14.00z LREF) surface low that develops in response to these
forcings shifts eastward into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

The ensembles that comprise the LREF (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) have come into
far better agreement regarding the track of the low with the 14.00z
run of the grand ensemble. Previously, LREF cluster analysis
depicted two primary solutions of nearly equal membership: a more
northern solution and a more southern solution. The recent runs have
trended towards the northern solution, bringing the low more
directly over southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. This better
agreement increases confidence regarding precipitation potential
Tuesday night into Wednesday with the 14.01z NBM highlighting 40-80%
probabilities across our area, highest north of I-94 which is in
line with the northward trend. QPF is also expected to be highest
north of I-94 as the 14.00z LREF suggests 30-60% probabilities for
greater than 1/4 inch and 10-30% probabilities for greater than 1/2
inch.

Rain is expected to be the predominant precipitation type with this
event owing to the preceding abnormal warmth, although some snow may
be able to mix in north of I-94 where thermal profiles depicted in
model soundings hover near freezing, especially towards daybreak
Wednesday. A rumble of thunder also can`t be ruled out along and
south of I-90 as global deterministic models suggest upwards of 100
J/kg of MUCAPE will be present.

Despite the increasing confidence in the current forecast, this
event is still several days away, so there is still time for
additional variation within the model suite. If models begin to
trend southward as the parent wave begins to move onshore the west
coast and be better sampled, snow could become a greater concern for
those in north-central Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A few pockets of MVFR mist/fog have developed overnight, but
will quickly dissipate this morning with most sites back to VFR
after 14z. Another round of fog is possible tonight primarily north
of I-90 with the 14.00z HREF painting 30-60% probabilities for
less than 1SM visibilities. The 14.07z NBM does not have quite
this strong of a signal, but does depict potential for MVFR
visibility reductions. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail today
with southwesterly winds of 5-10kts, becoming light and variable
tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 325 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Here are some of the record high and warm low temperatures
for La Crosse and Rochester from February 14 through
February 16.

Record or near record highs Saturday, February 14
(Record/Forecast):

                        High Temp
----------------------------------------
Rochester, MN           58 (1954)      / 54
La Crosse, WI           56 (1934/1954) / 56

Record or near record highs Sunday, February 15
(Record/Forecast):

                        High Temp
----------------------------------------
Rochester, MN           49 (1931) / 51
La Crosse, WI           65 (1921) / 52

Record or near record highs Monday, February 16
(Record/Forecast):

                        High Temp
----------------------------------------
Rochester, MN           59 (1931)      / 55
La Crosse, WI           60 (1921/1981) / 57

Record or near record warm lows Monday, February 16
(Record/Forecast):

                        Warm Low Temp
----------------------------------------
Rochester, MN           35 (1931) / 39
La Crosse, WI           40 (1981) / 35

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Falkinham
CLIMATE...Falkinham