Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

106
FXUS63 KARX 191041
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
541 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms bringing heavy rain and gusty winds this
  morning predominately west of US63.

- More progressive pattern favored into next week, with
  multiple chances of precipitation.

- Trending warmer by middle of next week, with persistent
  ridging across the central CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

This morning into Today: Thunderstorms this morning, another chance
this afternoon across southern Wisconsin.

As was suspected yesterday, the lack of better synoptic forcing has
the ongoing thunderstorms across central and southern MN struggling.
Short-term trends have had additional showers developing ahead and
east of these storms with the LLJ feeding additional moisture into
the area. The last few HRRR runs have waffled back and forth a bit
on the eastward extent of thunderstorms, with the latest run not
bringing much storms east of I35. Recent radar trends would agree
with these storms already reaching I90 and remaining west of I35 as
the storms progress south into the better instability. It would seem
that if storms don`t begin to fire across SE MN in the next hour or
two, the chances drop off significantly as ongoing storms drop south
through the LLJ.

I`m trending the PoPs this morning closer to an ARW/HRRR solution as
it has handled the ongoing convection the best among CAM members.
This would bring the ongoing convection across sern MN into NE Iowa.
As day begins to break, these models want to bring convection closer
towards the Mississippi River, potentially into Grant County.
Meanwhile, ongoing showers are expected to continue to move through
central Wisconsin along the WI29 corridor as there is better
synoptic forcing northward through the overnight period. Latest
models aren`t as keen on afternoon convection across parts of
southern WI later today, but have kept a few slight chances (20%)
along and south of the Wisconsin River as a frontal boundary drops
south through the area.

Sunday: Low Rain Chances (20%) South

The frontal boundary moving through today stalls across IA with our
area on the cooler side of this stagnant boundary. Meanwhile, a
developing ridge begins to take hold across the central CONUS. This
will bring a chance (15 to 30%) of showers and thunderstorms south
of I90 towards this stationary frontal boundary. Dewpoints along and
south of I90 will be in the mid 60s, with upper 50s to 60 along and
north of I94 across central and northern Wisconsin.

Next Week: Becoming Active with Increasing Temps through the Week

An amplifying ridge across the central CONUS takes hold on Monday as
troughing develops across the Pacific NW. A series of waves are
progged to eject from this Pacific NW trough and ride along the
ridge axis across the Upper Midwest through the middle of next week,
bringing multiple chances of precipitation across the area. Global
ensembles have gotten closer in line with each other, with minimal
differences in 500mb heights through at least Wednesday this week.
This places the Upper Midwest within an enhanced precipitation track
through the middle of week before ensembles suggest this ridge axis
retrogrades westward towards the Rockies. While medium range
ensemble members are all in agreement for the overall pattern
evolution, the finer details of just how warm and where the best
precipitation chances set up should begin to come into better
picture over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

IFR/MVFR ceilings will be seen at the TAF sites into the early
afternoon and then they will become VFR. Additional IFR/MVFR
ceilings will once again develop early on Sunday morning.

Due to a wake low, the winds will gust up to 40 mph until
19.13z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...JAW