Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

640
FXUS63 KARX 042322
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
622 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon storms mostly in northeast Iowa may spread east into
  southwest Wisconsin and north towards the Minnesota border.
  Evening and nighttime storms dive south-southeast primarily
  affecting southeast Minnesota, weakening as they approach
  depending on diurnal timing.

- Potential for slightly cooler temperatures with storms
  circumnavigating the forecast area through the start of the
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Funnel Cloud Potential This Afternoon:

The airmass across northern Iowa early this afternoon is
spreading east-northeast towards the forecast area with reports
of Funnel Clouds. Combination of mostly clear skies causing
steep low level lapse rates with weak low level winds is
increasing Non-Supercell Tornado values near 2 well west of the
local forecast area. Given the environment, overall confidence
and impact threat is low as funnel clouds are usually brief,
dropping only a few hundred feet from the cloud base, and rarely
become a tornado or cause damage. Have issued an SPS through 7PM
for the possibility in northeast Iowa where local threat is
highest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Storm Chances This Afternoon/Evening:

Burbling storms along residual past storm outflow boundaries have
caused storms in southwestern counties of the local area in
northeast Iowa. Expect these to continue spreading east through the
early afternoon, potentially continuing through southwest Wisconsin
towards Lake Michigan. The accompanying instability gradient also
extends north-northwest through southeast Minnesota where recent
radar reflectivity has exhibited isolated, single cell, short-lived
storms burbling early this afternoon.

Storm Chances This Evening & Tonight:

Storm probabilities increase through the late evening into
tonight primarily in southeast Minnesota as the storms in
central to northern Minnesota early this afternoon fall
southeast along a weak upper level perturbation. Current timing
slightly after diurnal heating suggests a weakening trend as
storms approach the forecast area while instability recedes
southwest. Therefore, diurnal timing will be the main concern
after any, limited, transient, isolated weak storms. Location of
longer duration storms this afternoon consuming available
instability will also influence instability into tonight. Longer
duration storms will limit subsequent unstable air, limiting
nighttime storms.

Through The New Week:

A weak low formation over the Great Lakes through Sunday drags a
back door cold front over much of the Upper Mississippi River
Valley. Long term global ensembles and accompanying deterministic
models agree for this area of cyclonic rotation lingering through
midweek, resulting in locally cooler temperatures than surrounding
areas and a shield of precipitation probabilities potentially.
Differences in strength and location of the low pressure will be the
main driving factor for local weather impacts as a stronger solution
will result in stronger east winds off the Great Lakes causing
cooler temperatures and less precipitation chances for much of the
local area. Peripheral storms and precipitation will remain possible
regardless.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms may continue through
this evening. Rain chances become low after midnight. A low
chance (10 to 30%) exists for showers and storms to be possible
again on Sunday afternoon and early evening. Mostly VFR
conditions, with the exception that with a moist atmosphere and
light winds, fog or stratus may form. With some high cloud
potential, this would favor more of a stratus deck rather than
fog. We will see how the early overnight goes to see which
scenario begins to play out. Will update TAFs accordingly once
confidence has increased on which scenario occurs.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAR
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...Cecava