Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

356
FXUS63 KARX 250006
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
706 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few storms develop west of the area this evening
  and move across much of the area tonight into Monday morning.

- Periodic shower/storm chances Tuesday afternon into Wednesday
  afternoon across the western and central Wisconsin.

- Temperatures warm Tuesday into Wednesday with highs in the
  middle 80s to around 90 both days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Tonight into Monday

Focus tonight into Monday is the developing convection over southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin this evening and tonight. A couple
of pieces of energy embedded in west to east zonal flow will move
over the forecast area tonight into Monday morning. Decent 925-850mb
moisture transport/convergence and forcing is associated with the
pieces of energy. Given the forcing/moisture convergence...this
should allow for convection to develop west of the forecast area
this evening and track over the forecast area tonight. Instability
is limited as the latest guidance suggest 0-6km Most Unstable CAPE
of 300 to 700 j/kg mainly over the northern half of the forecast
area tonight. Coverage of thunder at this time appears to be
isolated to scattered across the forecast area. Instability weakens
over the forecast area after 12z Monday. With forcing/moisture
convergence waning...convection should slowly weaken across the
forecast area.


Monday night into Wednesday

Upper level ridge builds over the Northern Plain States Monday night
into Tuesday. This will lift moisture convergence and weak shortwave
troughs northward into central Minnesota Monday night into Tuesday.
Subsidence underneath surface/upper level ridge should keep the
southern forecast area mainly dry Monday night into Tuesday night.
As the weak shortwave trough and weak forcing lifting north...there
is the possibility...albeit small (20%)...over the northern parts of
the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night.

Upper level ridge builds into southern Canada and upper level trough
digs over the Great Lakes Region Wednesday. A weak impulse embedded
in the northwesterly aloft tracks over central Wisconsin Wednesday
afternoon. Bufkit soundings over central Wisconsin show cap
weakening due to daytime heating. If the cap erodes completely
scattered showers/storms would develop mainly over central Wisconsin
after 18z Wednesday.

Temperatures warm for Tuesday into Wednesday...with model guidance
indicating 925mb temperatures climbing into the plus 20 to plus 25
degrees celsius and mostly sunny skies both days across the region.
Temperatures will be above normal...with highs rising into the
middle 80s to around 90.

Wednesday night through Sunday

Upper level ridge continues to amplify over the Upper Great
Lakes/southern Canada through Wednesday night into next weekend.
Subsidence underneath upper level ridge will suppress any
convection/rain chances to the south and west of the forecast area.
Mainly dry is expected through much of the forecast period.
Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with highs mainly in
the middle 70s to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Two rounds of low storm potential affect primarily west of the
MIssissippi River Valley locally in southeast Minnesota through
the 25.00Z TAF period. Initial storm chances seen on radar
upstream in south-central Minnesota sagging southeast. A
weakening trend as storms continue into the evening hours limits
overall confidence and therefore have accounted for RA
potential at KRST TAF site with PROB30. Reignition of storms
through the morning near KRST TAF site progress east, again
weakening as heading east albeit this time towards KLSE TAF
site.

VFR expected outside of these storm chances.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DTJ
AVIATION...JAR